DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) 鈥� ‘s stranglehold on may be easing 鈥� and its own oil problems now seem to be mounting.
The crucial strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies once passed, has been effectively shut by Iran’s attacks on shipping since the start of the war in February. Even with much of its navy sunk, just Iran’s threat to attack made through the strait. The resulting energy crunch has fueled global inflation,
The situation, however, appears to be shifting. Analysts say more oil from Gulf Arab states appears to be getting out to market, with the help of the U.S. military. U.S. says a 鈥渟ecret mission鈥� to provide overwatch for ships got more than 100 million barrels of crude oil out. Meanwhile, American forces imposing a blockade have repeatedly shot at or stopped ships associated with Iran’s sanctioned oil trade, affecting the country’s ability to get the hard currency it needs.
The flow of oil remains below the 15 million barrels a day that once came through the strait. So it won’t satiate the global energy market, especially as nations draw down their reserves. which have been used to somewhat cushion the blow to world supplies.
But if the flow can be sustained or ramped up, it could change the calculus of the crisis. Iran’s ability has been its greatest advantage, giving it confidence it can outlast the U.S. even as the war and American blockade wreaked heavy damage on its economy.
Iran increasingly is feeling the pressure. 鈥淲e are currently under sanctions, and our routes have been blocked. We face a difficult test,鈥� President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a live address on state television Wednesday. 鈥淕overning the country is not an easy task under the current circumstances, given the shortages we face, the unrest we have experienced and the problems that remain.鈥�
Still, the course of the conflict remains highly uncertain. This week saw days of intense fire between Iran, Israel and the United States. Trump on Thursday threatened to seize and bomb the Islamic Republic even more intensely, then suddenly pulled back and once again claimed a breakthrough in negotiations to end the war.
A 鈥榮ecret mission鈥� goes public
Getting the strait open and oil flowing has been a key priority for Trump 鈥� though he has seemed at times to flail for ways to make it happen. After initially telling allied nations that the strait wasn’t America’s concern and to ” ,” Trump turned to threatening to do everything up to the destruction of ” ” to get tankers out through the waterway again.
It appears that in recent weeks, rising confidence in U.S. military support and the growing need for supplies convinced shippers to hazard the risk of running the strait, using stealthy methods.
Most likely, the ships have gone through by going 鈥渄ark,鈥� meaning they鈥檝e turned off their tracking systems. TankerTrackers.com, a website tracking the oil trade at sea, said it had also seen ship-to-ship transfers by Gulf Arab states this past weekend, trying to obscure the source of their crude and run through the strait without being detected by Iran. That鈥檚 likely with the support of the American military.
Kpler, a firm monitoring commodities markets, has tracked some 96 million barrels of non-Iranian crude oil exports getting out of the region since early May, either through the strait or via export options in the Gulf of Oman, said Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler.
Including cargoes still loading, she said, it would likely exceed 100 million barrels, 鈥渂roadly consistent with Trump鈥檚 claim.鈥�
Trump gave the 100 million barrel figure in online posts Wednesday, in which he said more than 200 vessels had traveled through the strait thanks to 鈥渁 secret mission鈥� to support tankers and other ships.
鈥淭his wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz 鈥� NOT Iran,鈥� Trump wrote.
U.S. forces are conducting a 鈥渓imited overwatch operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft and drone escorts to help ships through the southern part of the strait near the coast of Oman,鈥� said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at the Lloyd鈥檚 List Intelligence maritime data company.
this week off Oman after allegedly being hit by an Iranian drone 鈥渨as probably part of that operation,鈥� he said in an online webinar Thursday.
Iran has said the strait is closed after this week’s exchanges which saw two days of American airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan 鈥� nations that host American troops. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday insisted the strait wasn鈥檛 an international waterway, despite being considered as one by the world.
US blockade squeezes Iran’s oil industry
As the U.S. pushes Gulf Arab states’ tankers out, it continues to block Iranian ones from entering or leaving the strait. That has included shooting into vessels to stop them, like .
Unable to get its oil to market, Iran is topping out onshore storage and using dozens of tankers off Kharg Island to store crude. of oil at some wells, which experts warn can be dangerous, since older wells like those Iran has may not be able to be started again after stopping.
The energy firm Wood Mackenzie believes Iran’s output has fallen by 800,000 barrels a day since the American blockade began. Meanwhile, the amount stored onshore is estimated to be 69 million barrels, the highest level since Trump’s 鈥渕aximum pressure鈥� campaign in 2020.
鈥淭he mounting economic cost of falling output, restricted exports and tightening storage capacity is increasing pressure on Tehran to seek a diplomatic solution,鈥� Alexandre Araman of Wood Mackenzie said. 鈥淔or Iran, even a temporary diplomatic breakthrough could provide immediate relief.鈥�
Oil prices have remained under $100 a barrel, in part over Trump’s promises of a deal and other countries using reserves and tightening their use of oil. China, long a major buyer of Iranian sanctioned oil, saw its seaborne crude oil imports drop to 6.8 million barrels a day in May, its lowest level since October 2016, according to Kpler.
That’s bought Trump and the global economy a bit more time, but a deal likely would need to be reached soon to avoid the energy crisis becoming dire in the coming months.
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Associated Press writers Chan Ho-him in Hong Kong and Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
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EDITOR鈥橲 NOTE 鈥� , news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006. is a veteran business writer for the AP based in Frankfurt, Germany.
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