WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� President Donald Trump is ground troops to seize critical oil infrastructure on , a military gambit that experts say would risk American lives and could still fail to end the war.
If Trump wants to hobble Iran’s oil industry for , a better option might be setting up a blockade at sea against ships that have filled up at Kharg Island’s oil terminals, the experts said.
The island 鈥� located on the other side of the Persian Gulf from U.S. bases in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia 鈥� is the beating heart of , through which 90% of its exports pass. It is important because Iran鈥檚 coastline is mostly too shallow for tanker ships to dock.
鈥淧utting people on the ground might be the most psychologically compelling way of striking a blow at Iran,鈥� said Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
鈥淥n the other hand, you鈥檙e putting your own troops at jeopardy,” said Eisenstadt, a retired Army reserve officer who served in Iraq. “It鈥檚 not far from the mainland. So they can potentially rain a lot of destruction on the island, if they鈥檙e willing to inflict damage on their own infrastructure.鈥�
Seizing Kharg Island could escalate the conflict, said Danny Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at Israel鈥檚 Institute for National Security Studies.
He said Iran and its proxies 鈥� including 鈥� could , including by laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz or striking targets with drones across the Arabian Peninsula, from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea.
Commodities researchers and investment banks warn for energy prices and .
鈥淚t will be hard to take. It will be hard to hold,” Citrinowicz said of Kharg Island. 鈥淎nd it might damage the economy, but not in a way that will force the Iranians to capitulate.鈥�
Trump says 鈥榤aybe we take Kharg Island’
Trump is under growing pressure to end the monthlong conflict with Iran, which has attacked U.S. bases and allies in the region.
Iran also has , a narrow chokepoint through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows, causing fuel prices to soar and other economic tumult.
Trump said in a social media post Monday that 鈥済reat progress is being made鈥� in talks with Iran to end military operations. But he said that if a deal is not reached 鈥渟hortly鈥� and the strait is not immediately reopened, the U.S. would obliterate , oil wells, Kharg Island and possibly even .
Trump has raised the idea of American forces seizing Kharg Island.
鈥淢aybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don鈥檛. We have a lot of options,鈥� Trump told the Financial Times. 鈥淚t would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.鈥�
Asked about Iranian defenses there, he said: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think they have any defense. We could take it very easily.鈥�
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that ground troops would not be needed to achieve the Trump administration’s goals. He did not repeat that assertion Monday after being asked about plans for U.S. ground troops, saying 鈥渢he president has several options at his disposal鈥� but diplomacy is Trump鈥檚 preference.
鈥淣ow, they are making threats about controlling the Hormuz Strait in perpetuity, creating a tolling system and the like,鈥� Rubio told ABC鈥檚 鈥淕ood Morning America.鈥� 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not going to be allowed to happen. And the president has a number of options available to him, if he so chooses, to prevent that from happening.鈥�
US has hit targets on the island crucial to Iran
The U.S. has already struck various targets on the island, including air defenses, a radar site, the airport and a hovercraft base, according to satellite analysis by the Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute鈥檚 Critical Threats Project.
Petras Katinas, an energy researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, said disrupting Kharg Island would not completely halt oil exports as Iran has other small ports. But it would reduce the oil revenue flowing to Iran’s government, 鈥渇orcing flows through a much smaller, costlier and less efficient export system,” he said.
However, Tehran has too much at stake to surrender over a single asset, no matter how economically significant, said Citrinowicz, the Iran expert at Israel鈥檚 Institute for National Security Studies.
While occupying Kharg might offer Washington some leverage in any negotiations, he said the notion that control of the island could be traded for Iran鈥檚 stockpile of enriched uranium was far-fetched.
鈥淚t鈥檚 in no way a decisive blow,鈥� Citrinowicz said.
US troops face risk from Iran’s mainland if they tried to seize Kharg Island
A U.S. Navy ship carrying about in the Middle East, while are expected soon. Another 2,500 Marines are being deployed from California. The Trump administration has not said what all those troops will be doing, but the 82nd Airborne is trained to parachute into hostile or contested territory to secure key territory and airfields.
One of the reasons American troops would be vulnerable on Kharg Island is its close proximity 鈥� about 33 kilometers (21 miles) 鈥� to the Iranian mainland, from which missiles, drones and artillery could be fired. Despite continued U.S. and Israeli strikes, the Islamic Republic is still attacking targets across the region, including a Saudi air base hundreds of miles away where more than two dozen last week.
Even with American ships and planes providing support, there would still be a relatively short window of time to shoot down every drone or missile launched from the mainland at the island, Eisenstadt said.
鈥淭he coast tends to be mountainous, so the drones can come in through mountain passes where it鈥檚 hard for our radar to pick up,鈥� he said. 鈥淎nd we don鈥檛 have the warning time.鈥�
Eisenstadt says a sea blockade against ships carrying Iranian oil would be a safer strategy and achieve the same goal of controlling most of Iran’s oil industry.
鈥淭hrow up a quarantine that seeks to seize Iranian oil shipments that are exiting the Gulf,鈥� agreed Clayton Seigle, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. It could be done at a distance 鈥渙utside the range of the lion鈥檚 share of Iran鈥檚 weapon systems.鈥�
Seigle argued against destroying Kharg Island’s oil infrastructure, which Trump also suggested.
鈥淲e were supposed to be coming to the rescue of the people that had been rising up and protesting for a better future,鈥� Seigle said. 鈥淪o to cripple Iran鈥檚 revenue-generating potential for many years to come would definitely not work in that direction.鈥�
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Metz reported from Ramallah, West Bank.
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