November has been fairly warm across the D.C. area, and it seems those unseasonably warm days may just be setting the stage for what this winter has in store.
Storm Team4 Chief Meteorologist Doug Kammerer is out with his annual winter weather forecast, but it doesn鈥檛 come with much hope for a white Christmas.
鈥淚t’s not looking like a good winter for us snow lovers,鈥� said Kammerer.
His forecast is calling for 2 to 6 inches of snow for the season near D.C., but he wouldn’t be surprised if the snowfall total is 1 to 2 inches once all is said and done. Some areas well west of D.C. may see up to a foot of snow.
Some of the things that factored into Kammerer鈥檚 forecast include the current phase of the El Ni帽o-Southern Oscillation, which are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can impact the weather around the globe. Right now, Kammerer said, we are seeing the third year in a row of a La Ni帽a phase, which brings colder water to the ocean鈥檚 surface.
鈥淭hat’s one reason why five of the last six winters have been below average as far as snowfall is concerned,鈥� said Kammerer.
Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska in the Northern Pacific are on the cooler side right now. And in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, water temperatures are warmer than usual for this time of year. Kammerer said those water temperatures, which impact the jet stream, also point to less snow this winter.
Kammerer said one other thing he examines is the snowfall in Siberia.
鈥淗ow much snow is in Siberia in the month of October normally has a fairly pretty, fairly good correlation to the amount of cold and snow we can get during our winter months here,鈥� Kammerer said.
Looking at winters past, Kammerer said, this could be among the warmest, similar to the winters of 1976-1977 and 2011-2012.
鈥淚 really do think this could be one of the warmest winters ever recorded in our area,鈥� Kammerer said.
As hopes of building a snowman and having a snowball fight may seem somewhat dashed, Kammerer said the best chance for snow would be in January and February. In December, there will be precipitation falling from the sky, but you鈥檒l probably need an umbrella to endure it.
鈥淚t looks like It’s going to be a very wet Christmas, not a white Christmas,鈥� Kammerer said.
Kammerer, who loves the snow, 飞辞苍鈥檛 say a big snow 飞辞苍鈥檛 happen, because one happened in 1996 during a La Ni帽a winter. But he said the chances of that happening this winter are very small.
鈥淭his is one of those forecasts that I actually hope I’m wrong,鈥� Kammerer said.
