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Former congresswoman and Democratic nominee for governor Abigail Spanberger fared better with voters than current lieutenant governor and Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears, according to a Roanoke College poll released Thursday showing Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 43%-26%.
This follows another poll published this week showing Spanberger with a 4-point lead over Earle-Sears.
The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College interviewed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19 to determine that聽by 17 percentage points. Meanwhile, another聽聽commissioned by business organization Virginia FREE conducted between May 9 and May 13 shows independent voters favoring Spanberger by 53%-47%. That poll included 1,000 participants. The Roanoke College poll鈥檚 margin of error is 5.25%.
While the sample sizes of the polls is much smaller than the number of people who are likely to participate in November鈥檚 statewide election, polls conducted sporadically leading up to elections can point to partisan tides.
The Roanoke College poll also explored key issues that could affect both campaigns such as the national deficit and debt, political anxiety and the job approval of the current president and governor.
More than half of polled voters, 51%, think 鈥� things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track,鈥� while 66% held the same sentiment about the country as a whole. Voters also had mixed feelings about leadership in the state and country, with Gov. Glenn Youngkin鈥檚 job approval rating coming in at 46%, which Roanoke College noted as 鈥渉is lowest and down seven points since November.鈥� President Donald Trump鈥檚 job approval rating, 31%, was low but not his lowest.
Participants also weighed in with their approval and disapproval of Youngkin鈥檚 successor. Spanberger rated聽41% favorable/40% unfavorable, similar to how polled voters rated her last November,聽while Earle-Sears鈥� favorability dropped from her previous rating and stands at聽32% favorable/48% unfavorable.听About one-fifth of respondents did not offer opinions on either candidates鈥� favorability.
The voter anxiety index from the Roanoke poll is 89.41, and reflects big shifts in how Virginians in both parties perceive the current state of government. Democratic voters鈥� anxiety skyrocketed from聽-10.39 in May 2024 to 101.77 last November, with a current anxiety index of 153.35.听Meanwhile, Republican voters鈥� anxiety index decreased last year, from 166.59 in May to 13.52 in November 2024, and now stands at -30.10. These figures reflect that political anxiety correlates closely with partisan control of the White House and Congress.
With Virginia鈥檚 gubernatorial election falling the year after a presidential election, the past two decades have shown that voters typically elect a governor who is the opposite party of the one who won the White House the year prior.
On national debt perceptions, a large majority of Virginians, 42%, are very concerned, while 40% said they are somewhat concerned. When it comes to the cause of the national deficit, a majority, 61%, thinks it is a result of spending too much, while 34% think it鈥檚 from not raising enough money through taxes.
When asked how to address the deficit, 74% of respondents favor raising taxes for people earning more than $400,000 annually, while 82% oppose across-the-board tax raises for everyone. Seventy-one percent of respondents oppose wholesale spending cuts.
鈥淪ix months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,鈥� said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
He added that more than a quarter of Virginians are still undecided voters 鈥� which could be good news for both candidates.
鈥淪panberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears,鈥� Wilson said. 鈥淭he favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.鈥�
