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Early voting in Virginia began just last week, but the first wave of ballots already shows Republican-leaning House of Delegates districts pulling ahead of their Democratic counterparts.
Of the 20 districts with the highest number of ballots cast so far, or lean Republican, five are strongly Democratic, and four are competitive, compiled by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project.
In total, 35,224 votes had been as of Monday, nearly all of them in person. Fewer than 1,000 ballots were cast by mail. And while Virginia does not register voters by party, the early figures could be a sign of stronger Republican enthusiasm heading into a pivotal election year.
Republican leaders said the numbers reflect a deliberate strategy to make early voting a priority, a reversal from 2020 when skepticism of the practice pervaded the party.
鈥淚t鈥檚 definitely a Republican strategy, and I would say it goes back several years,鈥� said Mark Peake, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia.
鈥淎ctually, Donald Trump did not like early voting in 2020 when we think the Democrats used mail-in ballots to go harvest a lot of votes, but since that time, it鈥檚 been widely acknowledged by the RNC, the RPV, and Republicans, in general in Virginia, that we can鈥檛 wait. We can鈥檛 wait until Election Day and give the Democrats 45 days of early voting, and we just show up on Election Day.鈥�
Peake said the party has made 鈥渁 concerted effort to get out there,鈥� describing it as a 鈥渉uge part of RPV strategy to contact less likely voters and to get them motivated, to get them out early and to get all Republican voters out early.鈥�
The early results, he argued, show that 鈥渙ur strategy is paying off.鈥�
The largest number of early ballots has come from House District 71, a politically competitive stretch of James City and New Kent counties that also includes Williamsburg.
The district has seen a changing electorate in recent years: Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won the district in 2024 with 51.5%, and U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., defeated Republican Hung Cao there last year, 52.3 to 47.5%. But Gov. Glenn Youngkin won the same area in 2021 by nearly eight points, and Republicans have often run strong here.
Del. Amanda Batten, R-James City, is seeking reelection in the district, which she has represented since 2019. Batten chairs the House Republican Caucus and also leads the so-called 鈥淧urple Caucus,鈥� of GOP members from politically vulnerable districts. She previously worked for Republican leaders in the General Assembly.
Her Democratic challenger, Jessica Anderson of Newport News, has a background in education and has raised slightly more campaign money than the incumbent so far: $356,915 to Batten鈥檚 $305,863.
Peake said the early voting surge in Batten鈥檚 district is 鈥渁 great sign鈥� for her.
鈥淚 think Amanda鈥檚 going to win that seat, we feel very confident about her winning,鈥� he said. 鈥淪he鈥檚 going to win that seat. And then we鈥檙e going to win back at least two more to take over the House.鈥�
But political analysts urged caution in reading too much into the early numbers.
鈥淭he results from the first day of voting are interesting, albeit it is very much just a snapshot,鈥� said David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg.
鈥淪everal things struck me, the biggest was a strong turnout in Republican lean districts, and the lower turnout in Democratic strongholds,鈥� Richards added. 鈥淥ne can read this in several ways 鈥� Republicans are getting their base out early to vote, and it is showing up in GOP-led areas. On the other hand, Democrats in GOP strongholds may be extra motivated to get out early to make sure they cast their ballot.鈥�
But Richards also said the data could signal 鈥渢rouble for the Democrats if their base is not feeling as motivated to vote, or feels that they will win easily, and so voting is not essential.鈥�
Early voting has become a centerpiece of Virginia鈥檚 elections since lawmakers expanded access in 2020. The state now allows any registered voter to cast a ballot in person up to 45 days before Election Day without providing a reason. Absentee voting by mail is also widely available.
This year, early voting , Sept. 19 and will continue through Nov. 1, two days before Election Day. Voters can also request and return mail-in ballots, though the share of votes cast that way remains relatively small.
Peake credited part of the GOP鈥檚 turnout edge to Youngkin鈥檚 鈥淪ecure the Vote鈥� campaign, launched through earlier this month. The initiative directs state agencies to encourage participation in early voting while promoting ballot security.
鈥淭his also ties in with Gov. Youngkin鈥檚 campaign,鈥� Peake said. 鈥淗e has been advertising that. And the RPV in conjunction with him has been advertising to secure your vote, which is encouraging Republicans to get out and vote from now until Election Day, and it is working.鈥�
Youngkin has said the program is about giving Virginians confidence in the election process.
鈥淲e must ensure that every legal vote is counted and that voters know their voices will be heard,鈥� the governor said in announcing the effort. 鈥淪ecure the Vote will help give voters the confidence to cast their ballots early, securely, and without hesitation.鈥�
Youngkin signed his order just as the U.S. Department of Justice was confirmed to be sharing state voter roll information with the Department of Homeland Security in a search for noncitizens, as .
His directive instructs the Virginia Department of Elections and its commissioner with federal agencies to identify noncitizens on the state鈥檚 voter list using tools like the SAVE (Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements) database.
Lamont Bagby, chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, pushed back on the idea that Republicans are running ahead. He said in a phone interview Monday that the available numbers 鈥渁ppear to be incomplete because not everyone has reported,鈥� but emphasized that 鈥渆very indication that I鈥檓 getting is that Democrats have outperformed 2021.鈥�
Bagby added that what he has seen so far suggests a roughly 鈥�2 to 1鈥� margin of Democrats to Republicans in early votes. 鈥淚鈥檓 thrilled about the excitement I鈥檓 seeing when I go to the polls,鈥� he said, while cautioning that 鈥渨e have a ton of work to do over the next 45 days.鈥�
Democrats have historically leaned on mobilizing voters closer to Election Day, often through labor unions, grassroots networks and get-out-the-vote drives in urban centers. But some strategists worry that the GOP鈥檚 embrace of early voting could erode what has traditionally been a Democratic edge in absentee and early ballots.
With more than a month of early voting still ahead, both parties will have opportunities to shape turnout. Republicans see the early surge as vindication of their outreach, while Democrats insist their base will show up in large numbers as the election nears.
For now, analysts say the safest conclusion is that Virginians are taking advantage of their expanded voting options 鈥� and that both parties are recalibrating how they approach an election season that increasingly stretches across nearly two months.
鈥淲hat will be really interesting to see is if the pattern holds over the next six weeks and how early voting in general plays out,鈥� Richards said. 鈥淎 strong first day might mean a record turnout for an off-off-year election.鈥�
