CHELSEA, Mich. (AP) 鈥� Old Brick Farm, where Larry Doll raises chickens, turkeys and ducks, was fortunate .
Doll’s small farm west of Detroit had no cases of , despite an ongoing outbreak that killed more than 2 million U.S. turkeys in the last three months alone. He also avoided another disease, avian metapneumovirus, which causes turkeys to lay fewer eggs.
鈥淚 try to keep the operation as clean as possible, and not bringing other animals in from other farms helps mitigate that risk as well,鈥� said Doll, whose farm has been in his family for five generations.
But Doll still saw the impact as those diseases shrank the U.S. turkey flock to a 40-year low this year. The hatchery where he gets his turkey chicks had fewer available this year. He plans to order another 100 hatchlings soon, even though they won鈥檛 arrive until July.
鈥淚f you don鈥檛 get your order in early, you鈥檙e not going to get it,鈥� he said.
Thanksgiving costs vary
The shrinking population is expected to cause wholesale turkey prices to rise 44% this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Despite the increase, many stores are offering discounted or even to soften the potential blow to . But even if the bird is cheaper than last year, the ingredients to prepare the rest of may not be. , for example, have increased prices for canned goods.
As of Nov. 17, a basket of 11 Thanksgiving staples 鈥� including a 10-pound frozen turkey, 10 Russet potatoes, a box of stuffing and cans of corn, green beans and cranberry sauce 鈥� cost $58.81, or 4.1% more , according to Datasembly, a market research company that surveys weekly prices at 150,000 U.S. stores. That鈥檚 higher than the average price increase for , which rose 2.7% in September, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Datasembly showed a 2% decline in the retail price of a 10-pound turkey as of Nov. 17. Pricing out Thanksgiving meals isn鈥檛 an exact science, and the firm’s tally differed from other estimates.
The , which uses volunteer shoppers in all 50 states to survey prices, reported that Thanksgiving dinner for 10 would cost $55.16 this year, or 5% less than last year. The , using NielsenIQ data from September, estimated that feeding 10 people on Thursday using store-brand products would cost $80 this year, which is 2% to 3% lower than last year’s estimate.
Tempting turkey prices
Grocery chains are also offering deals to attract shoppers. Discount grocer Aldi is advertising a $40 meal for 10 with 21 items. Kroger said shoppers could for under $50 with its menu of store-brand products.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump touted , which he said was 25% cheaper than last year. But that was because Walmart included a different assortment and fewer products overall this year.
鈥淲e’re seeing some promotions being implemented in an effort to draw customers into the store,鈥� David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, said.
That’s despite a sharp increase in wholesale turkey prices since August. In the second week of November, frozen 8-16 pound hens were averaging $1.77 per pound, up 81% from the same period last year, according to Mark Jordan, the executive director of Leap Market Analytics, which closely follows the poultry and livestock markets.
Avian viruses are the main culprit. But another reason for turkey鈥檚 higher wholesale prices has been an increase in consumer demand as other meats have gotten more expensive, Jordan said. were up 14% in September compared to last year, for example.
鈥淔or a big chunk of the population, they look at steak cuts and say, 鈥業 can鈥檛 or I don鈥檛 want to pay $30 a pound,鈥欌�� Jordan said.
That鈥檚 the case for Paul Nadeau, a retired consultant from Austin, Texas, who plans to smoke a turkey this week. Nadeau said he usually smokes a brisket over Thanksgiving weekend, but the beef brisket he buys would now cost more than $100. Turkey prices are also up at his local H-E-B supermarket, he said, but not by as much.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know of anything that鈥檚 down in price since last year except for eggs,鈥� Nadeau said.
Tariffs and weather
Trump鈥檚 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum are also raising prices. Farok Contractor, a distinguished professor of management and global business at the Rutgers Business School, said customers are paying 10 cents to 40 cents more per can when companies pass on the full cost of tariffs.
Tariffs may be partly to blame for the increased cost of jellied cranberry sauce, which was up 38% from last year in Datasembly鈥檚 survey. But weather was also a factor. is expected to be down 9% this year, hurt by drought conditions in Massachusetts, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
In Illinois, where most of the country鈥檚 canning pumpkins are grown, dry weather actually helped pumpkins avoid diseases that are more prevalent in wet conditions, said Raghela Scavuzzo, an associate director of food systems development at the Illinois Farm Bureau and the executive director of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association. Datasembly found that a 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix cost 5% less than last year.
Farm to table
Back at Old Brick Farm, which has been in his family since 1864, Doll walked among his turkeys the week before Thanksgiving, patting their heads as they waddled between their warm barn and an open pasture. In a few days, he planned to deliver them to an Amish butcher.
Doll sold all 92 turkeys he raised this year, with customers paying $6.50 per pound for what many tell him is the best turkey they’ve ever tasted. He enjoys a little profit, he said, and the good feeling of supplying a holiday meal.
鈥淚 just love it, to think that, you know, not only are we providing them food, but the centerpiece of their Thanksgiving dinner,鈥� he said.
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Associated Press Video Journalist Mike Householder contributed.
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