PARIS (AP) 鈥� They lurk in the oceans, a last resort to pulverize attackers with nuclear fire should France鈥檚 commander in chief ever make that terrible call.
French President , the person with the power to unleash France鈥檚 nuclear arsenal, will on Monday update French thinking on the potential use of warheads carried on and planes, if it ever came to that. This in the context of concerns in Europe that Russian war-making could spread beyond , and uncertainty about U.S. President 鈥檚 steadfastness as an ally.
For decades, Europe has lived under a protective umbrella of U.S. nuclear weapons, stationed on the continent since the mid-1950s to deter the former Soviet Union and now Russia. Lately, however, some European politicians and defense analysts are questioning whether Washington can still be relied upon to use such force if needed.
As the of the 27-nation , the questions are particularly pertinent for France.
Possible revisions to France鈥檚 nuclear deterrence policy, sure to be carefully calibrated and scrutinized by allies and potential enemies alike, could be among the most consequential decisions that Macron makes in his remaining 14 months as president, before to choose his successor in 2027.
That Macron feels a need to bare France鈥檚 nuclear teeth, in what will be the commander in chief鈥檚 second keynote speech laying out since his election in 2017, speaks to his concerns, voiced multiple times, about geopolitical and defense-technology shifts that threaten the security of France and its allies.
Those voicing doubts about Washington’s reliability include Rasmus Jarlov, chair of the Danish parliament鈥檚 Defense Committee.
鈥淚f things got really serious, I very much doubt that Trump would risk American cities to protect European cities,鈥� he said in an interview with The Associated Press. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 know but it seems very risky to rely on the American protection.鈥�
He and others are turning to France for reassurance. In the longer term, Jarlov argues that other European nations also need to arm themselves with nuclear weapons 鈥� an almost unfathomable prospect when U.S. protection seemed absolute in European minds.
鈥淭he Nordic countries have the capacity. We have uranium, we have nuclear scientists. We can develop nuclear weapons,鈥� he said. 鈥淩ealistically, it will take a lot of time. So in the short term, we are looking to France.鈥�
Adjusting to geopolitical risks
The world has changed dramatically since Macron鈥檚 first policy-making nuclear speech in 2020, with new uncertainties shoving old certainties aside.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, now , brought war to the EU鈥檚 door and of from Russian President .
is expanding . So, too, is North Korea鈥檚 . In October, Trump spoke about U.S. intentions to for the first time since 1992, although U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright later such tests would not include nuclear explosions.
Russia in 2024, lowering its bar for possible retaliation with nuclear weapons. The United Kingdom has to buy nuclear-capable U.S.-made F-35A fighter jets, restoring a capacity to deliver nuclear airstrikes that it phased out in the 1990s, leaving it with just submarine-based nuclear missiles.
The chosen site for Macron鈥檚 speech on Monday 鈥� the 脦le Longue base for France鈥檚 four 鈥� will drive home that French presidents also have nuclear muscle at their disposal in an increasingly unstable world. They each can carry 16 M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with multiple warheads.
鈥淭here are high expectations from the allies and partners, and maybe also the adversaries, about how the French nuclear doctrine could evolve,鈥� said H茅lo茂se Fayet, a nuclear deterrence specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, a Paris think tank.
Speaking in an AP interview, Fayet said she鈥檚 hoping for 鈥渞eal changes.鈥�
鈥淢aybe something about a greater and a clearer French commitment to the protection of allies, thanks to the French nuclear weapons,鈥� she said.
France鈥檚 nuclear force
Macron said in 2020 that France has fewer than 300 warheads 鈥� a number that has remained stable since former President Nicolas Sarkozy announced a modest reduction to that level in 2008.
Macron said the force is sufficient to inflict 鈥渁bsolutely unacceptable damage鈥� on the 鈥減olitical, economic, military nerve centers鈥� of any country that threatens the 鈥渧ital interests鈥� of France, 鈥渨hatever they may be.鈥�
Nuclear specialists will be watching for any hint from Macron that he no longer considers the French stockpile to be sufficient and that it might need to grow.
The language of deterrence is generally shrouded by deliberate ambiguity, to keep potential enemies guessing about the red lines that could trigger a nuclear response. Officials from Macron鈥檚 office, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the nuclear policy changes that Macron might make, were extremely guarded in their wording, not least because deterrence is a strictly presidential prerogative.
鈥淭here will no doubt be some shifts, fairly substantial developments,鈥� one of the officials said.
Protecting Europe
Again with careful wording, Macron in 2020 said the 鈥渧ital interests鈥� that France could defend with nuclear force don鈥檛 end at its borders but also have 鈥渁 European dimension.鈥�
Some European nations have taken up an offer Macron made then to discuss France鈥檚 nuclear deterrence and even associate European partners in French nuclear exercises.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says he鈥檚 had 鈥渋nitial talks鈥� with Macron about nuclear deterrence and has publicly theorized about German Air Force planes possibly being used to carry French nuclear bombs.
European nations engaging with France are seeking 鈥渁 second life insurance鈥� against any possibility of U.S. nuclear protection being withdrawn, says Etienne Marcuz, a French nuclear defense specialist at the Paris-based Foundation for Strategic Research think tank.
鈥淭he United States are unpredictable 鈥� have become unpredictable 鈥� because of the Trump 2 administration,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hat has legitimately raised the question of whether the United States would truly be prepared to protect Europe, and above all, whether they would be willing to deploy their nuclear forces in defense of Europe.鈥�
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Associated Press writers Sylvie Corbet in Paris and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin contributed.
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