WASHINGTON 鈥� Ayman al Zawahiri, leader of Al Qaida Central (AQC), was duped, is聽part of a conspiracy, or died long ago according to聽his fellow terrorists and intelligence experts and officials around the globe.
Those are the only reasons they can find to explain why he would swear allegiance to a dead man.
In an online newsletter called聽Al聽Nafir聽on July 20, 2014, Zawahiri said,聽鈥淭he first edition begins by renewing the pledge of allegiance to [the] Emir of the Believers Mullah Muhammad Omar聽Mujahid, may Allah preserve him.鈥�
But Omar, the head of the Taliban and the man the late Osama bin Laden and AQC called their 鈥淟eader of the Faithful鈥�,聽died in 2013, a year before Zawahiri鈥檚 pledge.
The Taliban, which kept it a secret, confirmed it a more than week ago and has chosen a new leader.
Richard Barrett, who tracked Zawahiri for a decade (2004-2013) as the Coordinator on the United Nations Al Qaida-Taliban Monitoring Team, told 海角精品黑料, 鈥渆ither Zawahiri was completely ignorant of what was going on with his so-called superior officer (Mullah Omar)聽or聽he was party to a long-standing deception. Either one would undermine his credibility in many of the other things he might have said.鈥�
Since the聽announcement聽of Omar鈥檚 death,聽a聽cascade of consequential events have created enormous pressure聽on Zawahiri to show聽himself.
Barrett, now a聽Senior Vice President at the聽Soufan聽Group, a strategic security and intelligence firm based in New York, said other telling events have led to speculation that聽Zawahiri is dead.
鈥淏eyond the absence of his comment about Mullah Omar, there鈥檚 the absence of a comment on the death of Nasir聽Al-Wuhaysi,聽the leader of Al Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),鈥� said Barrett.
Not only was聽Wuhaysi聽the head of聽AQAP, but聽according to Barrett, “he was the leader of the most聽important part of Al Qaida, and聽he was also Zawahiri鈥檚 general manager.鈥�
鈥淲uhaysi鈥檚聽death was a huge blow,鈥� said聽Patrick Skinner,聽Director of Special Projects for The聽Soufan聽Group.
鈥淗e was basically the operational leader of AQC and he was killed and聽Zawhiri聽has said nothing. So they鈥檝e lost their supreme leader and their number two;聽and the head of the group (Zawahiri), which is under tremendous pressure from ISIS, at least in terms of propaganda, has said nothing,鈥澛爏aid聽Skinner.
Questions about Zawahiri鈥檚 status are also pouring out of the jihadist community onto social media. Most notable among them are those from聽Muhamed Mahmoud, an Islamic State ISIL commander. In a聽blistering series of tweets on July 30, 2014, after the death of Mullah Omar聽said, 鈥渉ere is the next bombshell:聽Az-Zawahiri has long been dead and Al Qaida is concealing this.”
Mahmoud, a former Al Qaida operative, offered no聽concrete聽proof of Zawahiri’s death, but聽anecdotally pointed out that Zawahiri,聽“loved the camera and published an audio or video (message) for every event.”聽 Zawahiri聽he said, 鈥渉as not produced any聽kind of messaging in almost a year.鈥�
In the last year, numerous key Al Qaida figures have been killed.聽They include:
- Adnan El聽Shukrijumah, a top-tier, longtime operative, who once held a U.S. green card.
- Longtime American spokesman Adam聽Gadahn, a Southern California man of Jewish descent.
- Muhsin Al Fadhli, leader of the Khorasan group, and one of the few who had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks. He died, too, without any acknowledgment聽from Zawahiri.
鈥淚n their (jihadist) circles, these guys were rock stars, legends and they lost many legends and he hasn鈥檛 said a word since September鈥�, said Skinner.
If Zawahiri is still alive, said Skinner, a former case officer for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the growing speculation will force him to not just issue a statement, but, 鈥渉e must do something.”
“Written statements don鈥檛 mean anything, because Mullah Omar gave two EID addresses from the grave.鈥�
Omar, was believed to have released Eid al-Fitr addresses celebrating the end of Ramadan in 2014 and 2015, but as it turned out, he was already dead. Someone else wrote them and dispatched them in his name.
A key question is: was Zawahiri in the dark, part of the conspiracy to keep the legacy of the organization alive, or is he dead as well?
Skinner said Zawahiri might just be exercising caution and putting his own self-preservation over that of the organization. But he and Barrett both agree, if Zawahiri is alive, he鈥檚 embarrassed about his endorsement of a dead man. Barrett and Skinner say he鈥檚 likely aware the only way to rescue his reputation and to prevent Al Qaida鈥檚 fighters from defecting to ISIL is to launch a large scale attack on a western target.
U.S. and western intelligence officials said they have no concrete proof Zawahiri鈥檚 alive or dead, but they believe Al Qaida is still capable of striking western targets, including the U.S.
