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Since he took office in 2023, Gov. Wes Moore (D) has made housing a focus of his administration, and nearly every speech, proclamation and press release since then has featured the state鈥檚 96,000-unit housing shortage.
Does that mean there are 96,000 unhoused people in the state? Hardly. The number is the end product of a complicated formula that measures 鈥渓atent demand鈥� for housing, but analysts say it鈥檚 a solid number and a good starting point for discussions on the issue.
鈥淭hese are regional measures of housing ecosystems,鈥� said Anjali Kolachalam, policy manager for Up for Growth, a nationwide nonprofit that focuses on easing the far-reaching housing crisis through new housing development.
鈥淲hat it doesn鈥檛 mean is that you can look out your window and see hundreds of thousands of people unhoused 鈥� that there are 100,000 people on the streets of Maryland waiting for a house.鈥�
The number comes from Up For Growth鈥檚 Housing Underproduction Report. The organization released the 聽late last month, which nudged Moore鈥檚 favorite statistic down slightly, from a 96,000-unit shortage for the 2023 report to a 94,000-unit housing shortage for 2025.
The report compares available housing units to the 鈥渓atent demand鈥� of housing in a region, based on the housing market, Kolachalam explains.
鈥淯nderproduction is basically a measure of 鈥榟ousing you have鈥� and 鈥榟ousing you need,鈥欌�� she said. 鈥淭he 鈥榟ousing you have鈥� is basically the existing housing units, second and vacation homes and uninhabitable units. These are units that are currently renter or owner occupied, or they couldn鈥檛 be inhabited anyways.鈥�
鈥淗ousing you need鈥� reflects demand and includes households that 鈥渟hould have formed but didn鈥檛鈥� due to high housing costs or lack of options, she said.
鈥淢issing households is basically a measure of latent demand,鈥� Kolachalam said. 鈥淟atent demand is represented by kids who can鈥檛 move out of their parents鈥� place. Or, people who have more than one roommate when maybe they are looking to live alone because they are a little bit older.鈥�
In the 2025 analysis, Up for Growth determined that nationwide housing underproduction reached 3.78 million units, according to the most recent report reflecting 2023 data. That鈥檚 a decrease from the previous report, which found a 3.85 million unit underproduction nationally. Underproduction peaked during the 2021 housing market at 3.89 million units.
The report shows a similar decrease in Maryland over the last two years. The 2023 Housing Underproduction Report shows that Maryland faced an underproduction of 96,000 units in 2021, which is the figure used in a recent executive order Moore issued to reduce administrative hurdles for new development to address the 鈥渟hortage of at least 96,000 housing units.鈥�
It may seem like an improvement to Maryland鈥檚 housing supply, but analysts warn that tracking 鈥渉ousing underproduction鈥� is a complicated data point.
A reduced number does not always mean that more houses have been built, though that could be a factor, the report notes. In some metro areas, such as Baltimore, reduced underproduction could indicate a decrease in demand as people leave those areas for more affordable locations.
鈥淭he modest improvement in regional housing market conditions can be linked to concurrent increases in supply and reductions in demand in urban centers,鈥� the report said. 鈥淎t the same time, housing starts and unit deliveries were strong across many of those same metro areas. High levels of permitting activity in 2022 鈥� ushered in a 15-year production high of single-family detached homes and the highest new apartment construction since 1987.鈥�
A recent report from the Comptroller鈥檚 office reported that from 2010 to 2023, Maryland saw 2.3 million residents move to other states. In the report, Comptroller Brooke Lierman said that outmigration is a symptom of the state鈥檚 housing affordability crisis.
The Moore administration is not taking any victory laps yet.
鈥淭he decrease of 2,000 units estimated by the report is a statistically insignificant change in a statewide context,鈥� said a statement from the Department of Housing and Community Development. 鈥淢ore critical to evaluate is our current rate of housing production. At this rate, Maryland鈥檚 94,000-unit shortage would take another 50 years to address.
鈥淣ext week, the Department will publish housing production targets for the State of Maryland that will estimate the needed production rate to solve the state鈥檚 housing shortage,鈥� the statement said.
Regardless, housing affordability still tops the list as the No. 1 concern from Maryland voters, with nearly a quarter saying it is the biggest problem facing the state, according to polling by the Maryland Association of Realtors. It said one in three Maryland families are cost-burdened by their monthly rent or mortgage payment, including 52% of Maryland renters who pay more than 30% of their income on rent.
Meanwhile, there鈥檚 debate on how useful tracking underproduction is as a data point, as state officials, developers and advocates work to tackle housing unaffordability in the state.
鈥淭he 96,000-unit housing shortage figure is a useful starting point,鈥� said Aaron Greenfield, director of government affairs with the Maryland Multi-Housing Association, in a written statement. He noted that Maryland has a 鈥渟ignificant supply deficiency.鈥�
鈥淚t helps highlight the scale of the challenge, but it does not fully capture the complexity of Maryland鈥檚 housing needs, particularly in the rental housing market,鈥� he said. 鈥淲hile 96,000 units communicates the magnitude of the problem, Maryland must focus not only on the total number but also on ensuring we can actually deliver the right mix of housing across income levels.鈥�
Matt Losak, executive director of the Montgomery County Renters Alliance, says that while looking at the state鈥檚 鈥渦nderproduction鈥� metric may help with future planning of housing needs, it does 鈥渘othing鈥� to make housing more affordable for those struggling now.
鈥淭hey鈥檙e talking about folks who would move here in the future in anticipating the growth of our population,鈥� Losak said. 鈥淭hey have nothing to do with protecting or preserving the affordability and quality and stability of existing households.鈥�
Losak and other renter advocates support policies such as 鈥済ood cause evictions鈥� and rent stabilization to help keep people comfortably housed in the state. He is skeptical of having a singular focus on building new units.
鈥淭here is a theory that we can build our way out of the unaffordability and instability, but that theory is pockmarked with numerous holes,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he landlord-developer industry is not going to build their way out of profits 鈥� While we have no problem with people building more housing, more types of housing, we just don鈥檛 believe that policy is a substitute for renter protections.鈥�
