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Blue crab abundance in the Chesapeake Bay this year was at its since winter dredge surveys began in 1990, according to the Maryland Department of Natural Resources.
But the department is holding strong on the current harvest regulations, said Mandy Bromilow, blue crab program manager at the department.
鈥淲e鈥檙e still OK,鈥� Bromilow said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not ideal, but it鈥檚 not something where we鈥檙e super concerned.鈥�
That鈥檚 partly because the low levels did not fall below a key threshold of 72.5 million spawning-age female crabs. At 108 million, this year鈥檚 figure was below the department鈥檚 target of 196 million, but it didn鈥檛 hit rock bottom.
Scientists at DNR say that a harsh winter may be to blame, with cold snaps capable of killing off crabs bedding down for the season. The numbers of male, female and juvenile crabs in 2025鈥檚 survey, conducted from December through March. The total figure was 238 million crabs 鈥� compared to 317 million crabs the year before.
But the department is also awaiting the results from a fuller assessment of the blue crab stock, due out next spring, that promises to reshape the way the beloved crustacean is managed throughout the Chesapeake. It will be the first major stock assessment for the species since 2011.
The assessment doesn鈥檛 involve any additional surveys out on the water, but rather an in-depth review of existing data, with the goal of determining not only the overall health of the population, but the reasons for its fluctuations.
Scientists already know that the blue crabs are highly sensitive to factors like water temperature, and they only live for a few years, so the population can experience 鈥渂oom and bust鈥� cycles. But lately, the 鈥渂usts鈥� seem to keep coming, with six straight years of a below-average population of juvenile crabs. The lowest total population recorded by the survey since 1990 was just a few years ago, in 2022.
鈥淟ayered on top of those natural annual fluctuations, there are some additional somewhat unclear or mysterious factors that many hypothesize are influencing the blue crab population,鈥� said Allison Colden, Maryland executive director of the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.
Could it be the high population of invasive 鈥� and hungry 鈥� blue catfish gobbling up young crabs? Could it be water pollution depressing the growth of underwater grasses 鈥� a critical shelter protecting crabs from predators? Or might it be a question of climate change harming blue crabs by altering their ecosystem?
鈥淲e know the temperatures are increasing. We know that the timing of different algae blooms and other important cycles within the Chesapeake Bay is changing,鈥� Colden said. 鈥淭he relative impact of each one of those factors is something we hope that Maryland and Virginia will be able to investigate and address through the upcoming stock assessment.鈥�
Bromilow noted that Maryland has taken action in response to the declining trend. For example, in 2022, when the population reached its nadir, the department set the first-ever bushel limits for male crabs, shifting a management strategy that had focused on females. The department has kept the limits in place since then. But the population hasn鈥檛 responded accordingly. The number of adult male crabs fell from 46 million in 2024 to 26 million in 2025 鈥� a record low.
鈥淭he changes that we鈥檙e making 鈥� we鈥檙e not really seeing a response, and so it seems likely that there鈥檚 something else going on, like the environmental factors,鈥� Bromilow said.
The stock assessment will bring in scientific literature, computer modeling, and years worth of winter dredge data, and it could yield a changed paradigm for blue crab management in the bay, including for male crabs, Bromilow said. The assessment is produced by scientists from institutions such as the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, as well as natural resources departments such as Maryland鈥檚.
鈥淭he threshold or target could change, or we could learn that maybe males are more important than we thought previously, and there needs to be maybe a male reference point,鈥� Bromilow said. 鈥淏ut we don鈥檛 know that just yet.鈥�
In a news release, the Bay Foundation called the 2025 numbers 鈥渄istressing鈥� and called for Maryland to maintain bushel limits for male crabs, and increase protection for female crabs, 鈥渋ncluding reducing the importation of egg bearing 鈥榮ponge鈥� crabs from Virginia.鈥�
鈥淩educing harvest overall 鈥� and managing conservatively until we have the stock assessment 鈥� is probably a good idea, considering the trends we鈥檝e been seeing over the past five to six years,鈥� Colden said.
The Bay Foundation is calling on Virginia to decrease its harvest, and 鈥渃onsider additional protections for males,鈥� because of the historically low density this year, which fell below 2022鈥檚 figure of 26 million. The foundation also renewed its calls for the federal government to maintain funding for clean water initiatives at agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, citing their benefits for blue crabs.
Rob Newberry, a waterman and chairman of the Delmarva Fisheries Association, said Thursday that he wasn鈥檛 surprised by the bad results this year, given the tough winter, with temperatures that quickly plummeted and stayed cold, shocking crabs buried in the mud.
All the sudden the water [temperature] drops. Well, they鈥檙e dormant, and they can鈥檛 bury any deeper,鈥� Newberry said. 鈥淭hey get clobbered.鈥�
Brian Nesspor, a Rock Hall crabber known by the nickname 鈥淏eefalo鈥� or 鈥淏eef,鈥� said he鈥檚 expecting an 鈥渁verage鈥� year for the blue crab harvest. He鈥檚 optimistic about the number of young crabs, in part because he鈥檚 heard good news from fellow watermen who target clams on the bay bottom.
They鈥檝e seen more little crabs on their conveyor belts than crabbers see in their crab pots, which have a bigger mesh that allows small crabs to escape, Nesspor said.
鈥淭he report has been from them that it鈥檚 a very good banner crop of small crabs,鈥� Nesspor, who is a member of Maryland鈥檚 Tidal Fisheries Advisory Commission.
Nesspor has doubts about the baywide winter dredge survey. He argues that the sites selected for the survey each year may fail to capture the changing behavior of wintering blue crabs.
Each year, the surveyors randomly select 1,500 sites in the bay with water deeper than 5 feet for the survey, which DNR conducts alongside the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, according to its website. Nesspor has suggested that the department add one extra site per county suggested by watermen, based on the conditions they observe in the estuary. But he said he has been turned down.
鈥淭he crabs are bedding farther north. They鈥檙e in shallower water,鈥� Nesspor said. 鈥淓verything is changing in the bay. Mother Nature is way ahead of us.鈥�
Newberry shares the skepticism about the methodology.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not like counting sheep in a field,鈥� he said. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a little bit of a difficult problem here: They鈥檙e underwater, and you鈥檙e not.鈥�
