WASHINGTON (AP) 鈥� has to pressure the governments of , and now to meet his demands, but his preferred tactic is confronting a very different reality in the Middle East than in the Caribbean.
Unlike Cuba or Venezuela, Iran choked off , meaning the longer the standoff persists, the more . Tehran also poses a greater military threat than those two adversaries in America鈥檚 own hemisphere and requires far from U.S. shores.
gives it power during a shaky ceasefire because the widening economic risks, especially in an election year, could force the Republican president to end the , experts say.
鈥淚t鈥檚 really a question now of which country, the U.S. or Iran, has a greater pain tolerance,鈥� said Max Boot, a military historian and senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iran presents 鈥榤ajor differences鈥� from other blockades
of Trump’s use of the world鈥檚 most powerful navy to block the trade of Iran’s sanctioned oil and other goods is very much up for debate. But it certainly appears to be intensifying as the war grinds on.
The U.S. military on Thursday announced associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil, a day after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards took control of two vessels in the crucial waterway.
Trump also announced he has ordered the U.S. military to laying sea mines in the strait.
But the situation in Iran is not exactly analogous to what is playing out with the U.S. operations in Venezuela and Cuba.
Some experts say Trump鈥檚 success in Venezuela likely had more to do with the U.S. military raid that captured leader Nicol谩s Maduro than American warships to over the South American country.
, meanwhile, has caused the island鈥檚 most severe economic crisis in decades. While U.S. and Cuban officials have for rare talks, has failed to produce the Trump administration鈥檚 stated goal of .
鈥淚 do think that the success of the Maduro mission in Venezuela has probably emboldened the president,鈥� said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University鈥檚 National Security Law Program.
That does not make the situations in Venezuela and Iran similar 鈥� geographically, militarily or politically. 鈥淭here are some major differences,鈥� said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general.
While the blockade against Iran has delivered , including stopping freighters from importing various supplies, the country has still been able to , ship tracking companies say.
Iran has rejected Trump鈥檚 demands to reopen , where 20% of the world鈥檚 oil normally flows, and it has been this week. Stalled shipments through the strait have sent far beyond the region and raised the cost of food and , creating before the November’s elections.
鈥淏lockades are usually just one tool of a mechanism used in a conflict,鈥� said Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime history professor at Campbell University in North Carolina. 鈥淭hey can be important. But it鈥檚 only one element. And I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 going to be enough to convince the Iranians.鈥�
Effectiveness of US blockade called into question
Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, claimed last week that 鈥渘o ship has evaded U.S. forces.” The command overseeing the Middle East said it has directed 31 ships to turn around or return to port as of Wednesday.
Merchant shipping groups are skeptical.
Lloyd鈥檚 List Intelligence said 鈥渁 steady flow of shadow fleet traffic鈥� has passed in and out of the Persian Gulf, including 11 tankers with Iranian cargo that have left the Gulf of Oman outside the strait since April 13.
The maritime intelligence firm Windward said this week that Iranian traffic continues to flow 鈥渧ia deception.”
Iranian ships have several ways to sneak through the blockade, including spoofing their location tracking data or traveling through Pakistani territorial waters, Mercogliano said. He also noted that the sheer volume of shipping traffic the military needs to screen is a challenging task.
Blockades require patience to work
The last time the U.S. mounted a blockade similar to the one focused on Iranian ships was during the Kennedy administration in the early 1960s, against Cuba, Huntley said.
鈥淎nd it wasn’t even called a blockade,鈥� he said. 鈥淲e called it quarantine.鈥�
Some naval blockades over the course of history have had an impact, such as Britain’s blockade on Germany during World War I. “But they tend to be very long-term impacts, whereas Trump is looking for short-term, quick results,鈥� according to Boot, the military historian.
He said Trump probably saw the blockade on as playing a large role in the success of leadership changes in that country. But Boot said it had more to do with the U.S. ousting Maduro and the subsequent cooperation from his vice president, , who is now the acting president.
鈥淭here is no Delcy Rodr铆guez in Cuba or Iran,鈥� Boot said. 鈥淚 think his success in Venezuela led him astray, thinking that this was a template that could be replicated elsewhere. He sees it as a huge success at little cost. And, in fact, it turns out to be a unique set of circumstances.鈥�
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