ROME (AP) 鈥� In a packed auditorium in Rome on Sunday, a former Italian army general known to supporters as 鈥淚l Generale鈥� rallied followers of his fledgling party, casting himself as an outsider reshaping Italy鈥檚 right and challenging Premier .
‘s 鈥淣ational Future鈥� party is injecting uncertainty into the conservative bloc that has underpinned Meloni鈥檚 government, exposing tensions ahead of the 2027 general election.
Meloni’s party has its roots in fascism and she campaigned as an EU-skeptic, prompting analysts to speculate she would be a hard-line nationalist if elected. Instead, she has been a pragmatic conservative leader with a more moderate, pro-European approach, which also ensured a period of unusually long stability for Italy.
In early September, if still in office, Meloni will become the longest-serving head of government in the 80-year history of the Italian Republic, surpassing the late Silvio Berlusconi.
A rival carving out space to her right could test her ability to hold that tack, analysts say. The question is no longer whether Vannacci will influence the vote, but whether Meloni can contain, co-opt or outmaneuver her challenger.
Vannacci calls his party the 鈥榬eal right鈥�
鈥淲ith us, Italy will once again be the home of Italians,鈥� Vannacci said at his party鈥檚 founding assembly on Sunday. 鈥淓veryone must feel safe in their own home.鈥�
One day earlier, he proudly described his core lawmakers as the 鈥渄irty dozen,鈥� stressing his outsider role.
Vannacci, 57, emerged politically with his 2023 self-published book 鈥淚l mondo al contrario鈥� (The World Upside Down), which drew controversy for harsh attacks on LGBTQ+ people, migrants and minorities.
He entered politics a year later with 鈥檚 anti-migration League, winning more than 530,000 preferences in European Parliament elections. He left the League in February to launch his Futuro Nazionale, a break Salvini called a 鈥渂etrayal.鈥�
Since then, Vannacci has consolidated support. The party says it has surpassed 100,000 members and now has eight deputies, including defectors from the League and centrist Forza Italia, underscoring unease within Meloni鈥檚 coalition.
He rejects the traditional 鈥渇ar-right鈥� label, calling his movement the 鈥渞eal right,鈥� and has accused Meloni of failing to turn shared priorities into policies. He’s for now ruling out a possible alliance.
Vannacci platform centers on hard-line positions on security and migration, including calls for the ; opposition to EU policies such as the Green Deal; and criticism of Western sanctions on Russia.
Vannacci鈥檚 rise comes as far-right and nationalist parties gain ground across Europe, reshaping the political landscape and focusing on polarizing issues like migration and security.
A potential wild card
Analysts say Vannacci’s rise in Italy reflects a political and cultural shift.
鈥淗e is commanding a sort of political raid for hard-right votes within the main parties of the coalition,鈥� said Massimiliano Panarari, politics professor at University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. 鈥淢eloni鈥檚 strategy was to have no one to her right. Now she does.鈥�
Panarari described Vannacci as 鈥渁n entrepreneur of fear,鈥� whose rhetoric pushes themes that Meloni can no longer openly embrace in government, like openly anti-gay and anti-feminist positions.
Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and polling expert at YouTrend, said the development introduces 鈥渟omething new 鈥� an opposition from the right to the current government.鈥�
鈥淣ow there is a force outside the majority that challenges it on popular issues like migration, security and culture wars,鈥� he noted.
That shift carries electoral weight. Polls give Vannacci’s party single-digit support, but that’s a potentially decisive share when time comes for coalition building, given Italy鈥檚 main center-right and center-left blocs are so closely matched.
鈥淭hey could be the difference between finishing ahead or behind,鈥� Pregliasco said, describing Vannacci as a potential wild card.
Meloni has a tough choice to make
For Meloni, the dilemma is strategic.
鈥淚n terms of political debate, he introduces instability on the right,鈥� Pregliasco said. 鈥淪he and her allies must decide whether to absorb him into the coalition 鈥� but that would create problems.鈥�
Addressing parliament earlier this week, Meloni accused Vannacci-aligned lawmakers of undermining the government and favoring the left, while her Brothers of Italy party and centrist allies have ruled out electoral agreements.
For now, Meloni has avoided direct confrontation, a strategy seen as both calculation and a bet that Vannacci鈥檚 momentum may fade.
鈥淭he issue is what to do with this loose cannon of Vannacci, which could drag the right back toward the far right,鈥� Panarari said.
鈥淚鈥檓 not sure it would benefit Meloni to shift further right before general elections. Her approach will likely be marked by ambiguity and ambivalence, as long as possible.”
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