PARIS (AP) 鈥� France is moving to align its nuclear deterrent strategy more closely with European allies while keeping full control over any strike decision 鈥� an that French President described as crucial to bolstering the continent鈥檚 strategic autonomy.
Experts say the plan reflects growing doubts across Europe about U.S. reliability when it comes to the continent’s defense. France has been since Britain鈥檚 exit from the bloc in 2020.
Macron鈥檚 move reflects that, in case of a nuclear crisis, France would be the one offering 鈥渟ome form of a nuclear security guarantee,” said Florian Galleri, a nuclear deterrence expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology鈥檚 security studies program.
Speaking Monday from a top-secret submarine base in Western France, Macron announced 鈥渁 new step of France鈥檚 deterrence.”
His speech marked what could be the start of a major shift in policy that would allow, for the first time, temporary deployment of French nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries.
Macron said that Paris has started nuclear talks with eight nations 鈥� Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark. Partners joining the initiative would see their territory 鈥済ain a clearly affirmed link to our deterrence,鈥� Macron said.
Europe would shoulder more of its own security
American allies have played a central role in Europe鈥檚 defense since the end of World War II, protecting the continent through NATO鈥檚 nuclear mission.
However, Macron noted, recent U.S. national security and defense strategies reflect a reshuffling of American priorities.
Faced with heightened tensions with Russia, which has a vast nuclear arsenal and is developing new missiles, and as China expands its nuclear forces, 鈥渙ur way of thinking must change,鈥� Macron said.
Outlining the new strategy he called 鈥渇orward deterrence,鈥� Macron insisted that France won’t share any decision-making since under its constitution, the president remains solely responsible for any decision on using nuclear weapons.
Still, that stance underscores a fundamental contradiction, Galleri said. 鈥淭he strategic backing intended to integrate French nuclear deterrence into a collective European defense framework necessarily requires a degree of coordination and joint planning,鈥� he argued.
鈥淥ne cannot, for example, carry out a nuclear strike without consulting a partner,鈥� he added.
France’s new approach offers the possibility for partners to participate in deterrence exercises, Macron also said. In case of crisis, French nuclear forces could be supported by some European conventional capabilities.
That could involve early warning systems 鈥� allies’ satellites and radars detecting and tracking missiles, engaging air defense and anti-drone protections and long-range deep-strike capabilities, he said.
Ultimately, the new doctrine would allow the temporary deployment of nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries across Europe, Macron added.
Strengthening France’s nuclear arsenal
Macron also said that evolving defenses among France鈥檚 competitors, the emergence of regional powers, possible coordination among adversaries and proliferation risks had led him to conclude that France must increase its number of nuclear warheads, for the first time since the 1990s and the end of the Cold War.
France currently possesses an estimated 290 warheads.
H茅lo茂se Fayet, a nuclear deterrence specialist at the French Institute of International Relations, a Paris-based think tank, cited a part of Macron’s speech where the president said France鈥檚 nuclear deterrent is designed to inflict on an adversary 鈥渄amage from which they would not recover.鈥�
That means 鈥渨e must always be able to inflict that kind of damage,鈥� Fayet said while deploring Macron鈥檚 decision not to publicize the numbers of France’s warheads.
If Russia, for example, improved its defense systems, then France would need 鈥渕ore nuclear warheads,鈥� Fayet said.
Complementing NATO’s mission
Macron made clear that any European coordination would come in addition to NATO鈥檚 nuclear mission, in which France does not participate, and be compatible with the alliance鈥檚 role in European security.
Ian Lesser, a NATO expert and distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said Macron鈥檚 move 鈥渞eflects the state of security in Europe” following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as the 鈥済rowing uncertainty about the American security commitment to Europe.鈥�
Europe now has to “deal with a more aggressive Russia for some time to come,鈥� Lesser said.
NATO鈥檚 deterrence works through a strong American troop presence in Europe, with U.S. nuclear weapons stationed there, including in Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands.
鈥淭he bulk of Europe鈥檚 conventional deterrence is lodged in NATO 鈥� strategic command and organization, design and deployment,鈥� Lesser stressed.
鈥淣ATO is critical,” he added and 鈥滷rance is really not looking to weaken that. So the point about it being complementary is important.鈥�
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Associated Press writer Lorne Cook in Brussels contributed to this report.
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