After an exhausting award season delayed months by the COVID-19 pandemic, the 93rd annual Academy Awards will at long last arrive Sunday on ABC.
The ceremony will be a unique presentation with no host and no virtual speeches. Instead, guests will attend听Union Station in Los Angeles and a second location in London for international nominees. Other听live segments will be filmed at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre.
The telecast will almost certainly garner low ratings due to pandemic exhaustion, political divisions and an overall splintering of how Americans consume television across platforms. Last year’s Oscars hit a record low of 23.6 million total viewers, but reports of its death are greatly exaggerated. It routinely remains the 听every year.
Either way, it’s important to honor the art and craft of filmmaking.
So it’s time to make some predictions:
Best Actor
Nominees:听Riz Ahmed (鈥淪ound of Metal鈥�),听Chadwick Boseman (鈥淢a Rainey鈥檚 Black Bottom鈥�),听Anthony Hopkins (鈥淭he Father鈥�),听Gary Oldman (鈥淢ank鈥�),听Steven Yeun (鈥淢颈苍补谤颈鈥�)听
Prediction: Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Spoiler: Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
The late great Chadwick Boseman delivered a powerful performance as the brash trumpeter in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” challenging God with raw emotion from his fatal illness.听As a result, he’s swept the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards for a posthumous run that in part honors his body of work from “42” to “Black Panther.”
However, Anthony Hopkins just won at the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs), so there’s a chance he could court older voters for his second Oscar after “The Silence of the Lambs.” I also wouldn’t mind if Riz Ahmed won for “Sound of Metal.” Still, I think Boseman holds on to become just the third actor ever to win posthumously after Peter Finch (“Network”) and Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”).
Best Actress听
Nominees:听Viola Davis (鈥淢a Rainey鈥檚 Black Bottom鈥�),听Andra听Day (鈥淭he United States v. Billie Holiday鈥�),听Vanessa Kirby (鈥淧ieces of a Woman鈥�),听Frances McDormand (鈥�Nomadland鈥�),听Carey Mulligan (鈥淧romising Young Woman鈥�)听
Prediction: Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Spoiler: Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
This is the toughest category to predict due to an insane split at the previous award shows. Andra Day won at the Golden Globes, Carey Mulligan won at the Critics Choice Awards, Viola Davis won at the SAG Awards and Frances McDormand won at the BAFTAs.听If the universe wants to be truly crazy it would next award Vanessa Kirby at the Oscars.
I doubt that will happen. Davis has a real shot at winning after being voted by her acting peers at the SAG Awards, but I think Mulligan edges her out for the win by doing makeup in a mirror like last year’s winner, Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker.” The听#MeToo themes of “Promising Young Woman” should also win Best Original Screenplay for a real page turner.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Sacha Baron Cohen (鈥淭he Trial of the Chicago 7鈥�),听Daniel听Kaluuya听(鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah鈥�),听Leslie Odom Jr. (鈥淥ne Night in Miami鈥�),听Paul听Raci听(鈥淪ound of Metal鈥�),听Lakeith Stanfield (鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah鈥�)
Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Spoiler: Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
The most head-scratching pick by the Academy was putting both Daniel Kaluuya and Lakeith Stanfield in the supporting actor category for “Judas and the Black Messiah.” The movie was masterful, but if both Judas and the Black Messiah are supporting roles, who was the lead?
If the two rising stars split the vote, there’s a slight chance that Sacha Baron Cohen could sneak in for the win as Abbie Hoffman in “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” but I think Kaluuya triumphs after sweeping the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG Awards and BAFTAs. It’s about time after “Get Out,” “Widows,” “Black Panther,” “Queen & Slim” and a charming turn on “SNL.”
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:听Maria听Bakalova听(鈥楤orat Subsequent听Moviefilm鈥�),听Glenn Close (鈥淗illbilly Elegy鈥�),听Olivia Colman (鈥淭he Father鈥�),听Amanda Seyfried (鈥淢ank鈥�), Youn Yuh-jung (鈥淢颈苍补谤颈鈥�)听
Prediction: Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”)
Spoiler: Maria Bakalova (“Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”)
This category is the second hardest to call. “Borat” standout Maria Bakalova won big early this award season at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice by pranking former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, but her chances are fading as the election fades from memory.
Lately, the Supporting Actress race has rightfully shifted to Youn Yuh-jung, who won at the SAG Awards and BAFTAs for her role as the grandma in “Minari,” a beautiful indie film about the immigrant experience in America. Youn deserves to win for juggling humorous wisecracks and heartfelt lullabies for an instant classic performance.
Best Director
Nominees:听Thomas Vinterberg (鈥淎nother Round鈥�),听David Fincher (鈥淢ank鈥�),听Lee Isaac Chung (鈥淢颈苍补谤颈鈥�),听Chlo茅 Zhao (鈥�Nomadland鈥�),听Emerald Fennell (鈥淧romising Young Woman鈥�)听
Prediction: Chlo茅 Zhao (“Nomadland”)
Spoiler: Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
The one lock is听Chlo茅 Zhao winning Best Director for “Nomadland” after sweeping every single award show: Golden Globes, Critics Choices, Directors Guild Awards and BAFTAs. Zhao mixes听narrative and documentary with real-life nomads in exquisite compositions of western landscapes and intimate interiors using visual storytelling rather than dialogue.
Expect Zhao to join Kathryn Bigelow (“The Hurt Locker”) as only the second woman ever to win Best Director. The Chinese-born filmmaker will also become the second Asian filmmaker in a row to win Best Director after Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), extending the streak of international filmmakers winning Best Director in 10 out of the past 11 years.
Best Picture
Nominees: 鈥淭he Father,鈥� 鈥淛udas and the Black Messiah,鈥� 鈥淢补苍办,鈥� 鈥淢颈苍补谤颈,鈥� 鈥�Nomadland,鈥� 鈥淧romising Young Woman,鈥� 鈥淪ound of Metal,”听鈥淭he Trial of the Chicago 7鈥�
Prediction:听“Nomadland”
Spoiler: “Minari”
What’s the year’s best movie? Depends who you ask. The Academy snubbed “The Invisible Man” and “Palm Springs” as too mainstream and “First Cow” as too artsy. “Bad Education” was ridiculously slotted as a TV movie, while “Da 5 Bloods,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” and “One Night and Miami” were missed opportunities to highlight diversity.
What’s left is a list of films that most people haven’t seen, but that doesn’t make them unworthy. This year’s crop is stellar. “Minari” could win for capturing the American Dream, “Promising Young Woman” could land a feminist knockout, and “The Trial of the Chicago 7” could be a more traditional pick after winning Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards.
Still, the default answer is the right one as “Nomadland” has racked up Best Picture victories at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, Producers Guild Awards and BAFTAs.听Expect it to go the distance to win the Oscar, capturing the zeitgeist of pandemic grief and isolation. Who wouldn’t want to hop in a van and travel the country right now?
